538 President Projections 2024. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Compare the current 2024 presidential map projections of various political pundits.

Who’s ahead in national presidential polls? Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning each.